The New York Times: Election 2018 - Mexico's Presidential Elections: A Look Ahead

As Mexico prepares for its fifth federal election since the end of one-party rule, all eyes are on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his protégée, Claudia Sheinbaum. The incumbent president has given his blessing to Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City and environmental scientist, who is running under the auspices of the Movement for National Regeneration (Morena) party.

Sheinbaum's path to the presidency was paved by her predecessor, López Obrador, who seized power in the 1920s after the Mexican Revolution. This system, put in place by the Sonoran generals, allows for a degree of stability and continuity in governance. However, it also presents challenges for Sheinbaum, as she must balance her own course with the weight of her predecessor's popularity.

López Obrador has achieved modest reductions in poverty, but his administration has failed to deliver on its promise of social transformation. Many Mexicans are disillusioned with his government, despite his high approval ratings, which range from 50 to 70 percent. Surveys show that while citizens are disappointed in López Obrador's performance, they remain fond of the man himself.

Sheinbaum's popularity is likely due in part to her affiliation with Morena and the blessing she has received from López Obrador. In June, when Mexico holds its federal election, Sheinbaum is expected to win in a landslide victory over her main challenger, Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman and former senator nominated by a center-right coalition of opposition parties.

The third candidate, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, running under the auspices of the Citizens' Movement (MC), has little chance of winning. Sheinbaum's double-digit advantage over Gálvez in most polls indicates that she is well-positioned to succeed López Obrador and continue his legacy.

As President-elect, Sheinbaum will face challenges in balancing her own agenda with the expectations of her predecessor's supporters. However, with the blessing of López Obrador and her affiliation with Morena, she is likely to win over many voters who are disappointed with the current administration's performance. The outcome of Mexico's presidential election is all but certain, with Sheinbaum poised to become the country's next president.

Nytimes elections 2018